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Eyes are focused on the upcoming Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) housing price report due out on Thursday to hopefully tell us what we already know: home prices are falling. For reference purposes the fourth quarter 2006 headline from OFHEO was U. S. House Price Appreciation Rate Steadies. Yes, the word appreciation was still in the headline. Here is a snip: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Eyes are focused on the upcoming Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) housing price report due out on Thursday to The rate of home price appreciation in the U. S. remained steady in the fourth quarter of 2006, extending a general trend of deceleration begun earlier in the year. Home prices, based on repeat sales and refinancings, were 1.1 percent higher in the fourth quarter than they were in the third quarter of 2006. This is slightly above the revised growth estim...

The question of the day is 'What are Americans buying?' The answer was provided by Fed governor Richard Fisher in response to a question on housing: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? A: Americans will buy anything that looks good, feels good, smells good and tastes good. We're great consumers. And consumption is over 70% of GDP. Over the past several years, consumers leveraged rising housing prices and easy credit availability using their home as an ATM. Mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) soared, allowing consumer spending to grow faster than income growth over the past several years. This process was facilitated by rising home prices and loose lending standards. As long as housing prices were rising, lenders were willing to lend, and consumers were willing to spend, as rising housing prices gave them the confidence to draw down on savings. Today, mortgage equity withdrawal appears t...

The short answer is the yield curve is starting to widen, Congress is going on another spending spree, the market thinks rate hikes are nearly done, and the FED is likely to be printing more money for more government handouts. That combination is more important than a US$ that has somehow held together in the face of the above. Let's take a look at the long version. On Friday, Sept 16th, Bush rules out tax hikes to pay for Katrina. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The short answer is the yield curve is starting to widen, Congress is going on another spending spree, the market thinks rate hikes are nearly done, and the FED is likely to be printing more money for more government handouts. That combination is more important than a US$ that has somehow held together in the face of the above. President George W. Bush, facing alarm from conservatives over the soaring cost of post-Katrina rebuil...

Anyone remember the mantra 'All Real Estate is Local'? How long did we hear that as contagion spread from Florida, to Las Vegas, to Boston, to Phoenix, to San Diego, to Minneapolis, to Atlanta, to practically everywhere. Now that real estate generally sucks no matter where you go, we no longer hear that mantra. It's time for a new mantra. How about 'All Recessions are Local'? I talked about that in American Dream: Overbought & Overbuilt. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Anyone remember the mantra 'All Real Estate is Local'? How long did we hear that as contagion spread from Florida, to Las Vegas, to Boston, to Phoenix, to San Diego, to Minneapolis, to Atlanta, to practically everywhere. Now that real estate generally sucks no matter where you go, we no longer hear that mantra. Florida's robust economy of 2001 to 2005 was driven by the thousands of well-payi...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? My Comment: This article is off to a rocky start. The subprime blowup is well underway but by no means over. Two more waves of Alt-A and Pay-Option-Arms are coming up and those waves are now approaching shore. The Pay-Option-Arms problem could be worse because it will saddle lenders with hugely underwater properties. In their own way, however, commercial-real-estate loans were no less foolish than those made to home buyers with speckled credit. And as with the subprime mess, the reckoning will come. The implosion is going to be a refreshingly simple and familiar story. The commercial-real-estate frenzy has none of the nagging complications found in the residential market. There aren't any targets of predatory lending. There are no huge failures by government regulators. The aftermath won't see people thrown out of their homes—an unadulterated societal ...

PC Pro is reporting Cisco, the US networking giant has big plans to enter the mainstream consumer electronics market. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Cisco is considering the production of radios, phones and stereo systems, according to the Financial Times, which interviewed Charles Giancarlo, the company's chief development officer. While the Internet fridge has long been held as an example of a high-tech white elephant, Cisco apparently believes the demand for increasing Net connectivity for a range of devices presents a new opportunity for the venerable networking company. 'Consumer electronics companies have been able to compete on a stand-alone device but the dynamics of the market are changing,' he told the FT. 'The Internet and new networking requirements are enough of a disruptor for us to enter a new market'. While best known for network routers and switches, the...