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Seasonality has turned positive for gold and silver. Let's turn to the technicals for a second opinion. Click on any chart in this post for a better look. Gold WeeklyThere is a strong tendency for physical gold to put in a bottom in a June/July timeframe with an acceleration up starting in August/September, sometimes after a minor correction in August. The above chart also shows that buying gold close to the 50MA is typically a winning action. I spoke with Dave Meger, head metals trader at Alaron on Tuesday. Dave thinks 'the summer lows in both gold and silver are likely in.' This is not coming from someone who is perpetually bullish on metals. He was short gold headed into June.$HUI WeeklySeasonality does not play as consistent a factor with the $HUI as does physical gold but there is a positive correlation. Note too that strong breaks of the 50MA are much more common than with physical gold. Nonetheless the $HUI appears to be putting in a year long consolidation and is po...

Eyes are focused on the upcoming Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) housing price report due out on Thursday to hopefully tell us what we already know: home prices are falling. For reference purposes the fourth quarter 2006 headline from OFHEO was U. S. House Price Appreciation Rate Steadies. Yes, the word appreciation was still in the headline. Here is a snip: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Eyes are focused on the upcoming Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) housing price report due out on Thursday to The rate of home price appreciation in the U. S. remained steady in the fourth quarter of 2006, extending a general trend of deceleration begun earlier in the year. Home prices, based on repeat sales and refinancings, were 1.1 percent higher in the fourth quarter than they were in the third quarter of 2006. This is slightly above the revised growth estim...

The question of the day is 'What are Americans buying?' The answer was provided by Fed governor Richard Fisher in response to a question on housing: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? A: Americans will buy anything that looks good, feels good, smells good and tastes good. We're great consumers. And consumption is over 70% of GDP. Over the past several years, consumers leveraged rising housing prices and easy credit availability using their home as an ATM. Mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) soared, allowing consumer spending to grow faster than income growth over the past several years. This process was facilitated by rising home prices and loose lending standards. As long as housing prices were rising, lenders were willing to lend, and consumers were willing to spend, as rising housing prices gave them the confidence to draw down on savings. Today, mortgage equity withdrawal appears t...

The short answer is the yield curve is starting to widen, Congress is going on another spending spree, the market thinks rate hikes are nearly done, and the FED is likely to be printing more money for more government handouts. That combination is more important than a US$ that has somehow held together in the face of the above. Let's take a look at the long version. On Friday, Sept 16th, Bush rules out tax hikes to pay for Katrina. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The short answer is the yield curve is starting to widen, Congress is going on another spending spree, the market thinks rate hikes are nearly done, and the FED is likely to be printing more money for more government handouts. That combination is more important than a US$ that has somehow held together in the face of the above. President George W. Bush, facing alarm from conservatives over the soaring cost of post-Katrina rebuil...

Anyone remember the mantra 'All Real Estate is Local'? How long did we hear that as contagion spread from Florida, to Las Vegas, to Boston, to Phoenix, to San Diego, to Minneapolis, to Atlanta, to practically everywhere. Now that real estate generally sucks no matter where you go, we no longer hear that mantra. It's time for a new mantra. How about 'All Recessions are Local'? I talked about that in American Dream: Overbought & Overbuilt. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Anyone remember the mantra 'All Real Estate is Local'? How long did we hear that as contagion spread from Florida, to Las Vegas, to Boston, to Phoenix, to San Diego, to Minneapolis, to Atlanta, to practically everywhere. Now that real estate generally sucks no matter where you go, we no longer hear that mantra. Florida's robust economy of 2001 to 2005 was driven by the thousands of well-payi...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? My Comment: This article is off to a rocky start. The subprime blowup is well underway but by no means over. Two more waves of Alt-A and Pay-Option-Arms are coming up and those waves are now approaching shore. The Pay-Option-Arms problem could be worse because it will saddle lenders with hugely underwater properties. In their own way, however, commercial-real-estate loans were no less foolish than those made to home buyers with speckled credit. And as with the subprime mess, the reckoning will come. The implosion is going to be a refreshingly simple and familiar story. The commercial-real-estate frenzy has none of the nagging complications found in the residential market. There aren't any targets of predatory lending. There are no huge failures by government regulators. The aftermath won't see people thrown out of their homes—an unadulterated societal ...

PC Pro is reporting Cisco, the US networking giant has big plans to enter the mainstream consumer electronics market. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Cisco is considering the production of radios, phones and stereo systems, according to the Financial Times, which interviewed Charles Giancarlo, the company's chief development officer. While the Internet fridge has long been held as an example of a high-tech white elephant, Cisco apparently believes the demand for increasing Net connectivity for a range of devices presents a new opportunity for the venerable networking company. 'Consumer electronics companies have been able to compete on a stand-alone device but the dynamics of the market are changing,' he told the FT. 'The Internet and new networking requirements are enough of a disruptor for us to enter a new market'. While best known for network routers and switches, the...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The AAA ratings of MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial Group Inc. and their five smaller competitors are being reviewed by Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Without guarantees, $2.4 trillion of bonds may fall in value and some issuers would get shut out of the capital markets. 'We shudder to think of the ramifications,' said Greg Peters, head of credit strategy at New York-based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U. S. securities firm by market value. 'You have politicians, taxpayers, municipalities, states. It just opens up a Pandora's box. That is a huge destabilizing force.' My comment: The huge destabilizing factor comes from pretending the guarantee of MBIA and Ambac is actually worth anything. Their guarantee lets all kinds of garbage masquerade as AAA. What people should be shuddering over is how long this scam has continued an...

Those looking for a housing bottom anytime soon are likely to be disappointed. Let's see why from three different angles: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Those looking for a housing bottom anytime soon are likely to be disappointed. Let's see why from three different angles: On the basis of mortgage rate resets and a consumer led recession I mentioned a possible bottom in the 2011-2012 timeframe. Let's take a look at housing from another perspective: new home sales historic averages and housing from 1963 to present. New home sales reached a cyclical high in 2004-2005 approximately 50-60% higher than previous peaks. This happened in spite of a slowdown in population growth and household formation as compared to the 1960-1980 timeframe. From 1997-1998 and 2001-2002 to the recent peak, the average sales level was 1.1 million units, or 45-50% higher than the 40 year average. This tra...

Last night I was watching the futures soar on news that Citigroup agreed to sell 4.9% of the company to Abu Dhabi in return for $7.5 billion in cash. See Abu Dhabi Deal Raises Questions About Citigroup's Health. This morning Minyanville Professor Quint Tatro was talking about The Great Transfer of Wealth. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Last night I was watching the futures soar on news that Citigroup agreed to sell 4.9% of the company to Abu Dhabi in return for $7.5 billion in cash. See The problems the U. S. is facing today have come as a result of its own actions and it is now facing the consequences. This is nothing new and one can review many times in U. S. history when cycles have ebbed and flowed, resulting in booms and busts, the most recent being the technology bubble that came as a result of innovation, coupled with easy or cheap money and fueled by greed. Now, however, it seem...

The Pittsburgh Post Gazette has the sad story of a man whose lifetime of saving evaporated with the collapse of Metropolitan Savings Bank. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Raymond Przybilinski socked away $521,000 from a lifetime of driving trucks, working overtime when he could and playing the piano or accordion late into the evenings at weddings, hotel bars and social clubs. The money was destined for his five children. But that was before more than half of the family nest egg disappeared on Feb. 2 as state banking regulators seized Metropolitan Savings Bank in Lawrenceville, citing 'unsafe and unsound' operations. When Mr. Przybilinski tried to take his money out, the man in charge of Metropolitan Savings' assets informed him that there was only $200,000 left to withdraw -- the amount protected by the federal government. If a bank is offering above market rate interest on CDs a...

A PDF transcript for the FxStreet. com session 'The great 'Flation' debate - What's coming and how to profit from It' is now available for viewing. Andy at The Market Traders has posted it on his web site. No password is required. Note: the transcript starts with a repeat of my blog with that h1.If you already read that lengthy article, you may wish to scroll down to the Question and Answer portion of the PDF. Thanks to everyone that attended or submitted questions. Thanks also to Claire at FxStreet and Andy at The Market Traders for coordinating the session. Mike Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis. blogspot. com/

Northern Rock, Countrywide, Sentinel, and other have gotten themselves into a big mess by using short term borrowing to make long term loan commitments. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Northern Rock, Countrywide, Sentinel, and other have gotten themselves into a big mess by using short term borrowing to make long term loan commitments. As long as asset prices rise, then barring unusual jumps in interest rates, things tend to work out well for lenders, until things finally blow sky high. For the first time in six years, it is now possible to earn interest on your savings of 7%. The Stroud and Swindon building society has launched a one-year investment bond offering 7.05%. And the Standard Life bank is also offering a similar deal at 7%, although for just six months. It's pretty hard to make any money when you have to pay 7% to attract deposits while making long term mortgage commitments a...

Dateline May 23 2007.Statement by HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson On His Participation In The U. S. - China Strategic ECOMOMIC DIALOGUE. Mish Note: ECOMOMIC? The HUD could not even manage to spell economic correctly in their News Release. 'It's not a matter whether they're going to do more business in mortgage-backed securities, it's who they're going to business with,'' U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson told reporters in Beijing. He met with central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Minister of Construction Wang Guangtao in the nation's capital this week. HUD also plans to approach Chinese commercial banks such as China Construction Bank Corp. and ask them to buy mortgage securities, said Jackson. The housing department wants to sign a memorandum of understanding with construction minister Wang when he visits the U. S. in August, Jackson said without elaborating. The two nations face similar challenges in providi...

The deadline passed and UAW workers strike GM plants. 'We're on strike. It's too late to call us back now,' UAW Local President Chris 'Tiny' Sherwood told Reuters as a union-imposed strike deadline passed at 11 a. m. EDT. The UAW is shocked by GM's failure to recognize worker contributions. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? We're on strike. It's too late to call us back now,' UAW Local President Chris 'Tiny' Sherwood told Reuters as a union-imposed strike deadline passed at 11 a. m. EDT “We’re shocked and disappointed that General Motors has failed to recognize and appreciate what our membership has contributed during the past four years,” said UAW President Ron Gettelfinger. “Since 2003 our members have made extraordinary efforts every time the company came to us with a problem: the corporate restructuring, the attrition plan, the Delphi bankrup...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

The box Bernanke is in keeps getting tighter and tighter. First-time jobless claims SoarState unemployment benefits rose by 34,000 to 357,000 BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The number of U. S. workers applying for jobless benefits climbed by the highest amount in more than a year last week, to 357,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 34,000 to 357,000 for the week ending Nov. 25. The rise in claims is up from a revised 323,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. The number of workers continuing to collect unemployment benefits jumped by 45,000 during the week ending Nov. 18, to 2.48 million. The four-week average of continuing claims also rose, by 18,750 to 2.45 million. Business activity in the Chicago region slowed to its lowest level in more than three years in November, according to Chicago purchasing managers index re...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? For much too long, Texans angry over their property taxes have been dismissed as selfish misers. The conventional wisdom has been that Texas is one of the nation’s lowest tax states and complainers should just be glad they don’t live in Massachusetts. However, the Tax Foundation’s national report on property taxes released earlier this month shows Texas homeowners are being drowned in rising property taxes, forcing some to flee their homes for the safer ground of lower appraised property. The report documents how property taxes have skyrocketed relative to personal incomes. From 1999 to 2005, property tax appraisals in Texas went up 75 percent, while personal incomes rose only 35 percent. This is the result of rising property appraisals, on which state and local governments have been cashing in rather than rolling back tax rates accordingly. No wonder many Tex...